PDA

View Full Version : Hurricane Julio nails a sailboat at latitude ~29, north of Oahu



Robert Stodieck
08-10-2014, 09:35 PM
To answer Susans question....extra tropical cyclones in the area of Hawaii are talked about but very seldom seen.

"A 42-foot sailboat with three people aboard is taking on water in Hurricane Julio and asking for Coast Guard help. The Coast Guard on Sunday said the vessel Walkabout is disabled in 30-foot seas with 92-115 mph winds about 414 miles northeast of Oahu. The Coast Guard said a 661-foot container ship Manukai has been diverted and is en route to help the sailboat."

One of the "The Great Pacific Race" rowboats was also nicked by Julio yesterday but appears to be fine.

Robert Stodieck
08-11-2014, 01:15 PM
HONOLULU — Aug 11, 2014, 3:59 PM ET
Associated Press

A container ship crew on Monday rescued three people who were stranded in a sailboat off the Hawaiian islands for about 24 hours as Hurricane Julio battered their vessel with giant waves and high winds that ripped off one of its hatches.

The sailors made it on to the container ship at about 8 a.m., Coast Guard Chief Warrant Officer Gene Maestas said. They were in good condition, he said.

.... "It was so far away we could not send a helicopter that could make the journey," Petty Officer Melissa McKenzie said about why the Coast Guard had to coordinate the rescue with the container ship.

BobJ
08-11-2014, 01:21 PM
Thank you for your continued negativism towards our race. Eight years is a long time to bag on something - got anything positive/helpful to contribute?
________________________

Edit - Lest some newer SSS'ers think my comment to Mr. Stodieck was out of context, search for posts under his name going back to 2008. You will find a number of criticisms and sarcastic comments such as this: "I have owned boats, I prefer a good toothache and a traffic fine . . ." and this, referring to the 2008 SHTP fleet: "Most impressed with this years crop of near disposables and Alan's one-way-wonder."

Three long-time SSS'ers (former officers) tried to get Stodieck to get involved and race but he preferred to stay behind his keyboard and take shots at those of us who were.

So there's the context of my response to him. I just found out yesterday that my boat won't be back from Hawaii for another MONTH so I'm a bit crabby . . . but Robert, at least I own one and sailed it there (for the third time).

brianb
08-11-2014, 07:32 PM
The hurricanes are lining up from here to Baja. The search continues for a passing lane as we sit on Kauai provisioned for a return.

hodgmo
08-11-2014, 07:43 PM
Peter was right: This situation is seldom seen.

Speaking of Peter, it appears Scaramouche is at least several days ahead of wandering Julio and sailing fast.

I look forward to hearing Walkabout's story. For example, i wonder how they were monitoring weather as they sailed south? What communication systems did they have and did they work when needed? Perhaps Latitude will investigate and report...

Steve
S/V Frolic

Gamayun
08-12-2014, 01:06 AM
Peter was right: This situation is seldom seen.

Speaking of Peter, it appears Scaramouche is at least several days ahead of wandering Julio and sailing fast.

I look forward to hearing Walkabout's story. For example, i wonder how they were monitoring weather as they sailed south? What communication systems did they have and did they work when needed? Perhaps Latitude will investigate and report...

Steve
S/V Frolic

Glad to hear the SHTP in-transit vessels are doing well and hope the rest are able to return soon.

I read that Walkabout was heading toward Honolulu with an eventual destination to Singapore (?). No info on when they left California, but it was probably at least a week before the storm had really formed. They also didn't have an EPIRB. They had sent the distress call with a "Delorme device." The article below shows the condition of the vessel before the rescue though some articles stated the boat was later dismasted.

http://gcaptain.com/sailboat-dire-situation-hawaii-matson-containership-diverts-assist/

Robert Stodieck
08-12-2014, 07:55 AM
They also didn't have an EPIRB. They had sent the distress call with a "Delorme device."


I haven't found a clear statement about the EPIRB yet. They are apparently using the Delorme to track the abandoned boat.

That homemade looking covered "patio" on the stern was obviously the last thing they needed during that event.

Robert Stodieck
08-12-2014, 08:51 AM
"Most impressed with this years crop of near disposables and Alan's one-way-wonder." BTW Crabby, this statement was intended to be a heart felt compliment to Alan and the others. I am most impressed by the people who do this race competently in the smallest and lowest budget boats. I will take a Moore 24 any day . . . and preferably a pre-sold one.

BobJ
08-12-2014, 11:15 AM
“Some people have a way with words, and other people...oh, uh, not have way.”

― Steve Martin

Robert Stodieck
08-13-2014, 12:59 PM
Scaramouche is off shore based AIS. Does anyone know her position?

pogen
08-13-2014, 03:06 PM
You might or might not be able to see her here:

http://www.vesselfinder.com/?mmsi=316016592

But I've found these things pretty unreliable for Class B. Scaramouche did not choose to have Yellowbrick for the return.

You can see Harrier here:

http://yb.tl/shtp2014-return

Manus
08-14-2014, 07:48 PM
From Dr. Jeff Master's weather blog today: "In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Julio, located about 700 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, is nearing its end as high wind shear rips away at it. Julio was a hurricane most of this week in the waters north of Hawaii where no hurricane had ever been recorded before. Ordinarily, hurricanes cannot exist in those waters because of sea surface temperatures that are near 25°C, which is too cold to support a hurricane. However, ocean temperatures have been near 26 - 26.5°C this week, which is about 1°C above average, and warm enough to support a hurricane...."

See also: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYBA90.TIF

Gamayun
08-14-2014, 08:18 PM
So, is this climate or weather? Probably still too early to tell, but it seems to be a really weird year around here for water temperature. Or perhaps a new normal?

BobJ
08-14-2014, 09:18 PM
Reports are mixed on whether it's an El Nino year (you'll have to imagine the tilde over the "n") - if it's not I'd say we're kinda screwed.

I (for one) am not keen on doing any more Hawaii races when the conditions are so unpredictable.

Robert Stodieck
08-15-2014, 12:41 PM
Given the unprecedented amount of hot water north of latitude 25, we seem to have a "neo-niño" year. Prepare for unprecedented weather. Maybe "The Great San Diego Hurricane"?

Robert Stodieck
08-16-2014, 08:24 PM
"Conclusion: 2014/15 El Niño is likely to rival 1997/98 and 1982/83 events, which were the largest in the last 140 years or so."

Paul Beckwith

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubsV5-WfVsQ

Paul Beckwith

BobJ
08-16-2014, 08:42 PM
I don't know who that guy is, but he should hire an accountant to provide more dynamic and stimulating commentary.

Robert Stodieck
08-16-2014, 10:24 PM
Trying to cover too much material for one. Translated; the water temperature due north of Kauai at latitude 30N is around 82F. The water due east of Puerta Vallarta is 87F. It is el Nino time and hurricane time. But the "experts" are not exactly unified on this. You can probe for yourself starting here:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/10/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-161.41,21.91,512

Hurricane Iniki also ran way North as I recall.

peter00
08-25-2014, 07:48 PM
As I posted on FB, just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean the hurricanes weren't following me.

Mewes
08-28-2014, 01:08 PM
As a side note, the meteorologists on Hawaii are studying the effects of VOG mixing with Tropical Systems (and stronger). Turns out, increased lightning, torrential rains, etc. can result. Interesting stuff, that VOG. Fog in SF, Smog in LA, and VOG in Kona!

Gamayun
08-28-2014, 07:15 PM
As a side note, the meteorologists on Hawaii are studying the effects of VOG mixing with Tropical Systems (and stronger). Turns out, increased lightning, torrential rains, etc. can result. Interesting stuff, that VOG. Fog in SF, Smog in LA, and VOG in Kona!

VOG? Is that like Voice of God or something :-)

BobJ
08-28-2014, 09:18 PM
I suppose it depends on your hermeneutic, but here's the common explanation:

http://www.konaweb.com/vog/

Robert Stodieck
09-15-2014, 05:29 AM
Interesting year. The forecasts generally showed the track to the west of Cabo. The storm hit as a Cat 3. It could actually hit Phoenix as a tropical depression. This mornings wind history plot (shown) was actually the first indication that it was going to be a landfall at all much less hit La Paz. All the web cams in the area are down. - Robert

Harrier
09-16-2014, 08:22 AM
When Adam Correa and I were leaving Hanalei Bay in Harrier for LA, the delivery crew for "Grace" had been aboard for a day or
two, apparently preparing to depart. When did they leave? And when did they arrive at their destination, presumably the Bay
Area? Or did they ride out Julio et al in Hanalei Bay?

hodgmo
09-16-2014, 12:29 PM
Grace was in Nawiliwili when i got there on 6 aug. When Brian B and i left on Frolic the following Tue (12th), after Julio passed E of Kuaui, Grace was still there and the delivery captain said they planned to leave that Fri. Three weeks later Frolic arrived in the bay after being re-routed there by tropical systems Lowell and then Marie (our orininal destination was Santa Barbara). And Grace is in Ko Olina, Oahu 'seriously' for sale....

http://www.yachtworld.com/core/listing/pl_boat_detail.jsp?checked_boats=2756799&hosturl=kokua&slim=broker

Steve

Harrier
09-16-2014, 02:26 PM
Wow! I never cease to be amazed at sailing surprises.
And congrats to you and Brian for enduring what seems to have been a frustrating passage. Ours was sort of weird too, what
with the high moving around, breaking up hither and yon, etc. We hardly got any higher than Lat 35 and made some pretty
good easting on the upwind bash out of Hanalei. So the trip was shorter than normal in miles, altho about the same in
time. Found one nice ball.

Robert Stodieck
09-16-2014, 04:01 PM
Hurricane Pollo’s predicted path, according to NOAA, is to the immediate west of Cabo . . . exactly where NOAA’s predicted path was for Odile, until the day it hit Cabo.

hodgmo
09-16-2014, 07:21 PM
Harrier - The passage had challenging moments. I was lucky to have an experienced sailing companion. Though we found no balls, we landed one nice fish. It was good to hear you on the radio.
685
Frolic

peter00
09-17-2014, 10:24 AM
Ken, I called you religiously every aft. at 17:00 on SSB but never connected with you or any other returning vessels. We had some absolutely fantastic sailing after leaving Kauai, probably a full week of beam reaching in moderate air. Over all we probably had 3 days of motoring but generally an excellent trip. Julio kept our interest for much longer than we expected. 2 years ago when I double handed back we were cold from about 4 days out of Kauai until we arrived in Canada. Really cold. This time it was shorts and t-shirts right up until we disappeared into the fog near the coast. I can only assume that this was related to water temp.

Robert Stodieck
09-17-2014, 07:25 PM
Here are the SST plots for the SHTP return time-frame (August 10th-ish), for 2012 and 2014. Yes, it was over the top hot this year. Notice the 26.65C (80F) contour line. In 2012 it was way south of Hawaii at 15N. In 2014 it was at 160W 32N!

Look at the 20.15C line. In 2014 it looks like a breaking wave crest about hit Seattle.

The forum software reduces the resolution of these images. If you would like to see full resolution versions, PM me with your email address and I will send them over.

Harrier
09-18-2014, 07:13 AM
Peter
After I figured you had left, I called on the SSB freq we had talked about. Never got any answers, so stopped for awhile.
Then I tried a few more days. Oh well...
Our passage back was frustrated by a high which was broken up, rather than one big, normal glob. Never got higher than Lat
35deg. After we has passed east of where the high should have been, it started to show up as "normal" back behind us.
And the small/weak high sure wasn't very effective at keeping the hurricanes pushed south of Hawaii where the belong. We
were concerned about you and Steve/Brian. But the one of the net control people on the maritime mobile net that runs the
checkins at 0330Z (Jane, who lives near PoiPu) said Julio hadn't amounted to much on Kauai. And we figured you had made
enough northing by the time the Karina (?) became a threat.
All in all, a pretty different passage back which ended up taking me about the same time as it normally does.

All the best to you and Christie. Ken

Robert Stodieck
09-18-2014, 03:37 PM
Here is a detailed story about the rescue of Walkabout. They were dismasted by the rescue ship and went under the stern once. Ugh. "The boat got drawn under the counter and disappeared. After a few seconds, the boat popped out aft of the ship."

It appears that they may have been better off, in the end, without the rescue attempt.

http://www.sailors.org/dynamic/sites/default/files/newsletter/pdf/wcs_august_2014c.pdf

Robert Stodieck
09-23-2014, 05:42 PM
Best guess N24°28 W151°57, much farther south and east than I guessed from initial reports.

The map image appears to show the path of the Coast Guard aircraft until intercepting the Walkabout on the North East edge of the eye wall.

From "The Stars and Stripes";

http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/military-coordinating-effort-to-help-sailboat-battered-by-hurricanes-off-hawaii-1.297728