Weather forecast

Looks like a low pressure heading north could give the fleet some uncomfortable cross swell.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/disp...?a=npac_height
It's a long term forecast so it will be interesting to see what really happens.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Steevee

Looks like a low pressure heading north could give the fleet some uncomfortable cross swell.

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Yup, cross swells from the port beam are often a regular visitor of many races to Hawaii. As you say, they are generated from tropicals passing to the south of the racers' track, and can cause uncomfortable rolling of the vessel when running in the trades. Hurricane Blas should bring some larger than normal swells from the south and southeast. As they travel at about 15 knots, it can take several days for the swell to reach northward. Delayed reaction, so to speak.

Sea surface temperatures August 2014 Hawaii

Attachment 1610

Sea Surface Temperatures at Hawaii are about 1C above normal right now. I expect the temperature to increase about 1C more in August-September. This will put the approximate hurricane threshold of 27C right on top of the islands again this year in Aug-Sept. This suggests that we may again see hurricanes charging the islands while some of the return fleet is still there.

At this time I don't see any suggestion of the immense wall of hot water to the Northwest of Hawaii (see picture above) that allowed hurricane Julio to run well north of Hawaii in 2014, but we will see if this evolves over the next few weeks.

Attachment 1752

Storm information. At 5 AM Hst, the center of tropical storm Darby was located near Latitude 18.8N, longitude 153.9W, or about 100 miles southeast of Hilo, or about 310 miles East-southeast of Honolulu. Tropical Storm Darby is moving west at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph.

Situation Overview. Tropical Storm Darby will continue toward the Big Island this morning. The center of Darby is approaching the Big Island and will pass very near, or over, the Big Island today. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with the center of Darby expected to pass very near, or over, Maui County tonight and Sunday. Then, the center of Darby of expected to pass very near, or over, Oahu late on Sunday and pass very near Kauai County Sunday night. Rain and wind will increase well ahead of the center as it moves across Hawaii.

Attachment 1759

Same track as Odile around September 2014

Attachment 1757

2016, Double threats Madeline and Lester charge at Hawaii from the east arriving a few days apart. Madeline expected to pass south and Lester expected to pass north.


Attachment 1758

Iselle and Julio arrive at Hawaii with in days of each other in 2014. Iselle will pass slightly south. Julio will go way, way north. Arriving 3 weeks earlier than Madeline and Lester have, Julio in particular seriously threatened the late members of the return fleet.

Attachment 1799

Newton is weaker than Odile but you know they are not looking forward to this.

Attachment 1800

2014 HC Julio & 2016 HC Lester

Lester is weaker but the dynamics are very similar.