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Thread: El Nino this summer?

  1. #1
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    Default El Nino this summer?

    NOAA has issued an el nino watch for this summer

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html

    (There are also some cool images at http://earth.nullschool.net/)

    Comparing past SHTP results for el nino years with non-el nino summers indicates no significant correlation (82, 92, 94, 02, 04, 06).

    http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/history.html

    I wonder about the return sail though... any old timers have wisdom to share?

  2. #2
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hodgmo View Post
    NOAA has issued an el nino watch for this summer

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html

    (There are also some cool images at http://earth.nullschool.net/)

    Comparing past SHTP results for el nino years with non-el nino summers indicates no significant correlation (82, 92, 94, 02, 04, 06).

    http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/history.html

    I wonder about the return sail though... any old timers have wisdom to share?
    The second link only plots the correlation between the Scripps model and sea temperatures, not the SHTP results. What are you trying to compare, transit times with el nino events?

  3. #3
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    Apologies for not being clearer. You are partially correct about the 2nd link; in addition to the comparison with the model, it shows el nino history. I used the latter to find the el ninos that happened during a shtp. The shtp results I referred to were the ones in the spreadsheet that was emailed out a year or so ago, at least to the 2012 racers. It is an excel spreadsheet that shows all the results since the 1st race in '78. The elapsed times (average and winners) don’t appear to depend on whether it was an el nino summer or not. It’d be nice to know if there were el nino effects, such as more squalls, and/or whether return trip strategies were affected. I’m away from my boat and thinking too much.

  4. #4
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    My understanding is that the real effects of the el nino will not be felt until late summer/early fall (but I may be having a senior moment)

  5. #5
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    The coming El Nino is being widely forecasted as being on par or worse than the '97 one. Some effects for those sailing the Pacific ocean blue COULD?? be decreased trades, increased squalls, more Pacific hurricanes?? Check out the following:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...MJO/enso.shtml
    http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science...do/latestdata/

  6. #6
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    July list of Hawaii Hurricanes that mostly petered into tropical depressions or dissipated enough, but still brought waves/wind and damage. Next to that is the event of el Nino or El Nina (at .5 or -.5 min temp). I Wiki'd Hawaii Hurricanes and then compared it with the graph of sea temp changes.

    1957 Nino
    1971 Nina
    1982 Neither
    1983 Nino
    1985 Nina
    1986 Neither
    1989 Nina
    1992 Nino
    1993 Neither
    1994 Neither
    2013 Nina

    Out of 11 Hurricanes since 1957 that were Hawaii's concern, 7 of them were in years of higher or lower that the .5 threshold temps. I think most were from mid July onward. I have not heard from you old salts about this being of concern, so I am not concerned, but these are limited data points. I hope that we get a push from any tropical depressions or dissipations. Also, if I read correctly, there is no coming El Nino, but rather a 65% chance that we are on track for an El Nino.
    Last edited by Submarino; 05-18-2014 at 10:50 PM.

  7. #7
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    Jun 2013
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    Tropical Storm Amanda forms in Eastern Pacific

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=2684

  8. #8
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    This was posted on May 22: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...hurricane.html. It has a good discussion on NOAA's storm prediction in the tropical eastern Pacific. I guess we're on the northern edge of this prediction area, but it seems this would have some applicability to the NE Pacific, as well...

  9. #9
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    My understanding is you need SST's of 80 degrees or tropical systems dissipate. Even with the high sea temperatures this season (see Gamay's link) the chance of something major getting up to Hawaii is remote. Yellow is below 80F:

    This was a .gif so it got shrunk - Hawaii is the little black dot...
    Attachment 628
    Last edited by BobJ; 06-05-2014 at 11:48 AM.

  10. #10
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    Aug 2013
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    2000 brought Daniel to the tail end of the Pacific Cup. (PacCup started slowest boats Monday July 10? I was on one, we spent 3 days at Noon Day Rock. We weren't alone.)

    A good friend of mine got caught in it, along with "Formerly Known", and yes, it was indeed diminishing in force as it approached. Both yachts battened down the hatches. They were about 2/3 of the way to Kaneohe. Big Seas.

    They got there. Many of us were so stuck, drifting, that we turned back or didn't finish in time. In 2006 the RC extended the time limit to finish.

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