NOAA has issued an el nino watch for this summer
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html
(There are also some cool images at http://earth.nullschool.net/)
Comparing past SHTP results for el nino years with non-el nino summers indicates no significant correlation (82, 92, 94, 02, 04, 06).
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/history.html
I wonder about the return sail though... any old timers have wisdom to share?