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Thread: Hurricane Julio nails a sailboat at latitude ~29, north of Oahu

  1. #11
    pogen's Avatar
    pogen is offline Sailing canoe "Kūʻaupaʻa"
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    You might or might not be able to see her here:

    http://www.vesselfinder.com/?mmsi=316016592

    But I've found these things pretty unreliable for Class B. Scaramouche did not choose to have Yellowbrick for the return.

    You can see Harrier here:

    http://yb.tl/shtp2014-return

  2. #12
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    From Dr. Jeff Master's weather blog today: "In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Julio, located about 700 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, is nearing its end as high wind shear rips away at it. Julio was a hurricane most of this week in the waters north of Hawaii where no hurricane had ever been recorded before. Ordinarily, hurricanes cannot exist in those waters because of sea surface temperatures that are near 25°C, which is too cold to support a hurricane. However, ocean temperatures have been near 26 - 26.5°C this week, which is about 1°C above average, and warm enough to support a hurricane...."

    See also: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYBA90.TIF

  3. #13
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    So, is this climate or weather? Probably still too early to tell, but it seems to be a really weird year around here for water temperature. Or perhaps a new normal?

  4. #14
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    Reports are mixed on whether it's an El Nino year (you'll have to imagine the tilde over the "n") - if it's not I'd say we're kinda screwed.

    I (for one) am not keen on doing any more Hawaii races when the conditions are so unpredictable.

  5. #15
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    Given the unprecedented amount of hot water north of latitude 25, we seem to have a "neo-niņo" year. Prepare for unprecedented weather. Maybe "The Great San Diego Hurricane"?
    R Sailor

  6. #16
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    "Conclusion: 2014/15 El Niņo is likely to rival 1997/98 and 1982/83 events, which were the largest in the last 140 years or so."

    Paul Beckwith

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubsV5-WfVsQ

    Paul Beckwith
    R Sailor

  7. #17
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    I don't know who that guy is, but he should hire an accountant to provide more dynamic and stimulating commentary.

  8. #18
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    Trying to cover too much material for one. Translated; the water temperature due north of Kauai at latitude 30N is around 82F. The water due east of Puerta Vallarta is 87F. It is el Nino time and hurricane time. But the "experts" are not exactly unified on this. You can probe for yourself starting here:

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08...1.41,21.91,512

    Hurricane Iniki also ran way North as I recall.
    R Sailor

  9. #19
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    As I posted on FB, just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean the hurricanes weren't following me.

  10. #20
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    As a side note, the meteorologists on Hawaii are studying the effects of VOG mixing with Tropical Systems (and stronger). Turns out, increased lightning, torrential rains, etc. can result. Interesting stuff, that VOG. Fog in SF, Smog in LA, and VOG in Kona!

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