I suppose it depends on your hermeneutic, but here's the common explanation:
http://www.konaweb.com/vog/
Interesting year. The forecasts generally showed the track to the west of Cabo. The storm hit as a Cat 3. It could actually hit Phoenix as a tropical depression. This mornings wind history plot (shown) was actually the first indication that it was going to be a landfall at all much less hit La Paz. All the web cams in the area are down. - Robert
Last edited by Robert Stodieck; 09-15-2014 at 08:38 AM.
R Sailor
When Adam Correa and I were leaving Hanalei Bay in Harrier for LA, the delivery crew for "Grace" had been aboard for a day or
two, apparently preparing to depart. When did they leave? And when did they arrive at their destination, presumably the Bay
Area? Or did they ride out Julio et al in Hanalei Bay?
Grace was in Nawiliwili when i got there on 6 aug. When Brian B and i left on Frolic the following Tue (12th), after Julio passed E of Kuaui, Grace was still there and the delivery captain said they planned to leave that Fri. Three weeks later Frolic arrived in the bay after being re-routed there by tropical systems Lowell and then Marie (our orininal destination was Santa Barbara). And Grace is in Ko Olina, Oahu 'seriously' for sale....
http://www.yachtworld.com/core/listi...ua&slim=broker
Steve
Wow! I never cease to be amazed at sailing surprises.
And congrats to you and Brian for enduring what seems to have been a frustrating passage. Ours was sort of weird too, what
with the high moving around, breaking up hither and yon, etc. We hardly got any higher than Lat 35 and made some pretty
good easting on the upwind bash out of Hanalei. So the trip was shorter than normal in miles, altho about the same in
time. Found one nice ball.
Hurricane Pollo’s predicted path, according to NOAA, is to the immediate west of Cabo . . . exactly where NOAA’s predicted path was for Odile, until the day it hit Cabo.
Last edited by Robert Stodieck; 09-16-2014 at 04:42 PM.
R Sailor
Harrier - The passage had challenging moments. I was lucky to have an experienced sailing companion. Though we found no balls, we landed one nice fish. It was good to hear you on the radio.
Frolic
Ken, I called you religiously every aft. at 17:00 on SSB but never connected with you or any other returning vessels. We had some absolutely fantastic sailing after leaving Kauai, probably a full week of beam reaching in moderate air. Over all we probably had 3 days of motoring but generally an excellent trip. Julio kept our interest for much longer than we expected. 2 years ago when I double handed back we were cold from about 4 days out of Kauai until we arrived in Canada. Really cold. This time it was shorts and t-shirts right up until we disappeared into the fog near the coast. I can only assume that this was related to water temp.
Here are the SST plots for the SHTP return time-frame (August 10th-ish), for 2012 and 2014. Yes, it was over the top hot this year. Notice the 26.65C (80F) contour line. In 2012 it was way south of Hawaii at 15N. In 2014 it was at 160W 32N!
Look at the 20.15C line. In 2014 it looks like a breaking wave crest about hit Seattle.
The forum software reduces the resolution of these images. If you would like to see full resolution versions, PM me with your email address and I will send them over.
Last edited by Robert Stodieck; 10-14-2014 at 05:19 PM. Reason: sp
R Sailor