"I prefer June for race start simply because it gives the skippers increased latitude upon when to depart; if you stay into September the possibility of running into severe storm on the return trip increases. At least that's my argument for starting in late June." - rob/beetle
I think we should continue this discussion Rob. If I read this right your far more concerned about winter gales than a trip to the 'cane patch. We have both posted essentially the same data on Hurricane probabilities. Can someone post gale data?
But . . . June or earlier start dates tend to drastically reduce both risks, without impact on the points that you have identified as priority. Full moons happen once a month.
Actual Hurricane encounter probabilities appear to be crudely estimatable. The fleet extends 1000 nautical miles at times and various boats are in the 'caine patch for 4-5 weeks. Thats a pretty big target, maybe a "not if, but when" situation.