Page 1 of 7 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 61

Thread: What might have been.

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    249

    Default What might have been.

    A week out from the original start date, windy shows the high far north with a rhumb line racecourse.
    Another fast year? Will we ever see a “normal” year again?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Capitola,CA
    Posts
    2,249

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by WBChristie View Post
    A week out from the original start date, windy shows the high far north with a rhumb line racecourse.
    Another fast year? Will we ever see a “normal” year again?
    This summer's 2020 Singlehanded Transpac, slated to start Saturday, June 27, is postponed a year. Nevertheless, its never too early to begin, or continue prep to make 2021 SHTP a safe, fun, and fast SHTP passage.

    In this vein, as well rekindling fond memories of a wonderful boat, I hope to virtually sail my 27' sloop WILDFLOWER from the Corinthian Yacht Club start line to Hanalei Bay finish using her 2008 configuration, equipment, polars, sail combinations, and notes from my log book. Everything pretty much as it was 12 years ago, except I will use current available weather analysis and forecasts to make the passage as fast as possible given this year's June/July 2020 weather patterns and winds.

    Potential SHTP entrants and other interested parties are encouraged to “run what you got,” and begin to observe weather patterns this summer, rather than waiting until next year. Things can be learned and practiced, even with the boat tied to the dock and operating from Shelter in Place, including power consumption, understanding of Eastern Pacific weather patterns, and possible sail combinations, among other things.

    My plan, as it stands, is to post each day WILDFLOWER's theoretical DR position based on the previous 24 hour course and speed. Our course will be determined by whatever estimate will get us to Hanalei the fastest given the location and strength of the Pacific High and other weather influencers like an upper level low to the north, or tropical activity to the south. No, I don't have any routing program like Expedition.

    WILDFLOWER's reported 24 hour average boat speed will be a theoretical estimate derived from that day's projection of wind speed and direction in the area of the WILDFLOWER's position.

    Encouraging any and all to join in and “run what ya got” starting next Saturday, June 27, Noon PDST. No handicaps, safety inspections, qualifying, racing rules or expense required.

    Here's today's Anal (Pacific Surface Analysis)
    Name:  SHTP1.png
Views: 394
Size:  73.2 KB
    Last edited by sleddog; 06-21-2020 at 12:03 PM.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    249

    Default

    Great! this will be interesting. Thanks for doing this

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Capitola,CA
    Posts
    2,249

    Default

    To reaffirm my previous post above, at noon Saturday, June 27th, several hours after 30 odd singlehanders start the 2020 rescheduled Singlehanded Farallones Race near max ebb, WILDFLOWER and I will start sailing from the CYC start line with an imaginary 2020 Singlehanded Transpac fleet on a virtual passage to Hanalei

    At X+1, 24 hours after the start, I will post WF's position based on previous 24 hour average course and speed. These posts will continue daily until reaching the Hanalei Finish.
    .
    Our course will be determined by whatever estimate will get us to Hanalei the quickest given the location and strength of the Pacific High and other weather influences such as an upper level low to the north, or tropical activity to the south.

    I do not intend to mention ratings or handicaps. Probably after the first night, I won't see any other boats. But who knows what might be dreamt up...WF dueling gybes with SHARK ON BLUEGRASS?

    Whatever weather forecasting I use will be generic....am not using any routing program, just eyeball and best guess....With a strong Pacific High and out of season trof passing the Bay Area this Saturday evening, looks like Gale Alley will be in full cry Sunday and Monday. My course to Pt.A will take us south of the area of maximum winds, forecast to be 30-35 knots, and keep us in the 20-25 knot range, still plenty of breeze and sea conditions for the first night, a dark one, on a 27 foot boat in this year's virtual Singlehanded Transpac.

    Any and all are welcome to join in...

    Here's WILDFLOWER, and Norton Smith's SC-27 SOLITAIRE, dueling an hour after the start of the first Singlehanded Transpac, June 15, 1978.
    Name:  Fleur78 001.jpg
Views: 322
Size:  830.9 KB
    Last edited by sleddog; 06-25-2020 at 07:39 PM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Alameda CA
    Posts
    390

    Default

    So, right about now we'd all be gathering for the skippers meeting in the ballroom at CYC... followed by lunch at noon.
    I suppose we can dispense with the com plan and other features of the skippers meeting; Skip, if you want to add a weather brief, great...
    I'm planning on playing along here; expeditions open, polars are loaded. But that's just a fancy form of DR in this case.

    DH

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Capitola,CA
    Posts
    2,249

    Default

    6/26/20 S-1 (day) to start of 2020 Virtual Singlehanded Transpac

    Thanks to the club's generosity eleven 2020 SHTP entries have gathered at Corinthian YC in Tiburon. Despite its small size, this is the most competitive fleet in years with 3-4 challenging for 1st to Finish, and 7-9 a good chance at winning overall. Don't underestimate HULA, the Westsail 32!

    This morning I dove WILDFLOWER in 60 degree water for a last inspection, wipe down, and rubber banding the folding prop. Prop shaft is locked with vise grips, 5 gals of diesel fuel is aboard, 1 gal of that in jug.; 20 gal. of water in numbered jugs, 30 days supply of food (I'll be sailing home and shopping on Kauai is not cheap.), an Avon inflatable dinghy, a cockpit awning, 2 bean bean bags, a Sail-o-mat windvane and 2 tiller pilots. Electronic navigation is minimal: 2 solar panels (1 able to be moved around on deck.) a depth sounder and handheld GPS, which I will power up once per day to update my DR and mark a noon position.

    The weather briefing for tomorrow's noon start was short and sweet. Start will be on the last of a 3.3 ebb, one hour before slack. Winds in the Bay will be 15-20 from the SW. There's a strong EPAC high of 1031 mb anchored near 40Nx149W with intensification expected to 1035 mb near 42x146 in 72 hours, pretty much guaranteeing a fast first half of the race. There are no tropicals of concern. TD Boris is far to the south and west of track and poses no threat.

    Tomorrow evening, X+8 hours, an out-of-season cold front will rapidly veer the wind from SW to NW, then NNW, building strength from 15 knots to 20-25 knots off soundings and 22-28 knots on Sunday (X+2). Seas will build to 7-12 feet by Sunday. More wind north, less wind south, at least to 140 W.(Day 7)


    It should be fast and wet sailing, and I'm glad my CYC slip buddy HEDGEHOG and WILDFLOWER both have hatch dodgers.

    Taped to WILDFLOWER's main bulkhead is my "game plan" aka reminder list.
    Get out of Bay fast and clean. Choose right jib for the start, probably #2 (117%)
    VHF 12, 15 and 45 minutes, VTS transmits shipping bearing and range from Lightbucket. VHF 14 is Lightbucket to SF Bay. VHF 13 is Bridge to Bridge.
    As Stan Honey says, "consider the Farallones your weather mark until outside the SF Bar Channel.
    If struggling, I am trying to hard. Slow down, rest, regroup.
    Practice has shown I need 5 hours of sleep/24 hours. 20-40 minute naps OK.
    Don't get fancy with little details. Remember big picture.
    Have in mind what sails will be needed in next 6-12 hours. Stop spinny well.
    Know where I want to be on Day X+3 when crossing 130-00 W. This is "Pt. A."
    Reach off to broad reach to change headsails when the wind is over 20. No foredeck sail changes after dark. if possible. Always carry jib to bow rolled up and tied with a sail tie. Don't go to bow without knee brace. Crawl to bow except in benign conditions. Reefing/un-reefing OK at night. Keep in mind it takes 5 minutes to change jibs at a loss of 1 knot of speed.
    Keep all halyard and sheet tails in their bags and out of the water.
    Staysail and JT sheets always lead inside lifelines. Cunningham hook hangs up on main luff slugs.
    Be aggressive with spinny in winds <18 knots.
    If in doubt, sail closest gybe. Default course is 230m. No lower than 200m or higher than 270, my "fences."
    Trader Joe's Jambalaya is too spicy. Tuna in yellow curry sauce better.
    Don't trip on Autopilot cord!

    Name:  SHTP2.gif
Views: 286
Size:  249.0 KB
    Last edited by sleddog; 06-28-2020 at 05:37 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Location
    Los Osos
    Posts
    30

    Default

    Good luck on your Race, Sleddog!! We will be following along as will some folks up in PT.
    Are you going to nap on the couch 20 minutes at a time, then run out to Andre to check in with his weather? If so, remember to wear your safety harness when you go out!
    Annie is going to know you are nuts, you realize?

    Cool idea, dude!

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Capitola,CA
    Posts
    2,249

    Default

    6/27/20
    S-30 minutes to start at noon.
    Final Weather Briefing:
    Corrected Barometer = 1013 mb.
    Wind at the start will be SW 12-18. I can already see the port (outboard) end of the CYC start line is, as always, heavily favored. Will likely start on port tack, get a little upwind in clear air, then tack to starboard heading for the City Front and out into the last of the favorable ebb.

    WILDFLOWER's headsail of choice will be the #2, good for 6-20 knots of wind. It's a hank-on sail, as are all my headsails.

    A spotter at Lands End, outside the Gate, has phoned that she can see the breeze offshore looks to be light, 6-10 knots from the SW. Hawaii is dead upwind, at least until frontal passage this evening about dark when the lights go out.

    I can see this oncoming front, and veering wind shift on HRRR, aka High Resolution Rapid Refresh real time wind model. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/H...=hrrr_ncep_jet

    Will likely change down from the #2 to the #3 this evening about 2000 hours, if not before. If underpowered, I'll also set the staysail inside the #3 (on its own removable stay). We won't be underpowered long, and heading for Hanalei by mid-night.

    My plan is to get to windward as fast as possible, even if it means port tack for a while, away from the mark. I want to meet the frontal passage as quickly as possible. And that will mean being in the vicinity of the Farallones and west, not down near Point Montara and south. A veering (right hand shift) wind will initially favor the boats on the windward (NW) side of track.

    If you want to watch our start, go to Sam's Anchor Cafe outside deck. The inboard end of the start line is directly offshore, 100 yards seaward (SW). http://gobefore.me/cams/sams_cafe/ That American flag on Sam's pole is waving limply, indicating it's in the lee of Tiburon Point. Another reason to start out in the middle of Raccoon Straits: more wind, more good current.

    Gotta run. Here comes HEDGEHOG on starboard. Wheee! Of we go.
    Last edited by sleddog; 06-27-2020 at 02:36 PM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Capitola,CA
    Posts
    2,249

    Default

    0500 tomorrow, Sunday morning GFS Grib File display

    Name:  SHTP-4.png
Views: 258
Size:  359.5 KB

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    249

    Default

    Since all the racers are in their boats and cannot read this thread, armchair sailors are curious about some of the tactics. Is the Wind shift the only reason For this approach?
    Also closer to great circle route and quicker to the stronger winds...?
    Good luck, we are enjoying the ride!
    Quote Originally Posted by sleddog View Post
    6/27/20]
    My plan is to get to windward as fast as possible, even if it means port tack for a while, away from the mark. I want to meet the frontal passage as quickly as possible. And that will mean being in the vicinity of the Farallones and west, not down near Point Montara and south. A veering (right hand shift) wind will initially favor the boats on the windward (NW) side of track.
    Last edited by WBChristie; 06-27-2020 at 10:30 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •