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Thread: Race Progress

  1. #31
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    3,688

    Default

    Max must have one of those sat domes and internet. He's clearly slowed since Bill posted.

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    20

    Default

    Nice merge of the two files! Thanks!

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    255

    Default For your amusement

    Based on the 2100 reports.... Estimates of standings:


    24hr 24hr speed
    Warriors Wish 5.333333333
    Bandicoot 6.666666667
    Idefix 4.375
    Saraband 3.5
    Hecla 3.875
    Harrier 3.166666667
    Solar Wind 2.708333333
    Pakele 2.458333333
    Southernaire 2.291666667
    Dream Chaser 2.125
    Culebra 1.541666667
    Taz!! 1.5
    Second Verse 0.916666667
    Blue Moon 0.708333333

    Average speed over racecourse:
    Saraband
    Hecla
    Idefix
    Warriors Wish
    Solar Wind
    Harrier
    Pakele
    Culebra
    Dream Chaser
    Taz!!
    Second Verse
    Blue Moon
    Southernaire
    Bandicoot (*assumes started with everyone else)


    Looks like the wind is filling up from the north and WW is up and going again. If Bandicoot can avoid the holes, it might be a come from behind affair for Al.

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    255

    Default Predicted standings as of 6/25 0900

    WW looks to be picking up speed, only 40 odd miles behind Hecla. Many of the other boats look to still be struggling with lighter winds. Bandicoot still pushing hard from the back.


    24hr 24hr speed
    Warriors Wish 6.291666667
    Idefix 5.083333333
    Bandicoot 5.791666667
    Harrier 4
    Saraband 3.666666667
    Pakele 3.958333333
    Hecla 4.375
    Dream Chaser 3.25
    Solar Wind 2.416666667
    Taz!! 2.291666667
    Culebra 1.791666667
    Southernaire 1.458333333
    Blue Moon 0.916666667
    Second Verse 0.833333333



    Avg
    Saraband
    Warriors Wish
    Idefix
    Harrier
    Hecla
    Pakele
    Solar Wind
    Dream Chaser
    Culebra
    Taz!!
    Second Verse
    Blue Moon
    Southernaire
    Bandicoot

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    255

    Default Predicted standings as of 6/25 2100

    Predicted standings based on 6/25 2100 reports. Pretty darn close racing. Using the 24hr numbers the top 3 boats are within 1.5 hours from each other. As expected the southeasterns boats are not yet at hull speed, but they should have a better angle towards the finish.

    Using last 24hr avg speed as future predictor:

    24hr Corrected T(sec)
    Saraband 1074005.714
    Warriors Wish 1075593.631
    Idefix 1079496
    Pakele 1106197.08
    Harrier 1141227.097
    Hecla 1225507.55
    Dream Chaser 1475393.846
    Bandicoot 1486044.58
    Solar Wind 1780760
    Blue Moon 2001550.986
    Taz!! 2042779.459
    Culebra 2459804.068
    Southernaire 3238947.234
    Second Verse 5071017.931

    Using Average Speed from start of the race:
    Avg Corrected T(sec)
    Saraband 1151517.59
    Warriors Wish 1170556.561
    Idefix 1182688.72
    Harrier 1242175.922
    Hecla 1249332.308
    Pakele 1294781.215
    Solar Wind 1382570.867
    Dream Chaser 1467040
    Culebra 1581670.236
    Taz!! 1650133.748
    Blue Moon 1836965.07
    Second Verse 2053312.454
    Southernaire 2250695.135
    Bandicoot 3699342.703

    They are beginning to solidify in terms of order as the winds begins to settle. And the 24hr numbers I think will be the better predictors.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    50

    Default

    Thanks for the very nice summaries. Gotta like that WetSnail!

    -jak

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    50

    Default

    Here are some of the positions for 0900 plotted over the 1000 wind for Saturday 6/26.



    It looks like the trades will start to strengthen by Wednesday 6/30.


  8. #38
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    255

    Default Estimate finishes as of 6/26 0900

    A bit of shuffle amongst the leader board. Idefix looking better, Saraband still in the hunt, but as the lighter boats start to pick up speed she might drop a couple of slots.


    24hr Corrected T(sec)
    Idefix 1025053.333
    Saraband 1049689.231
    Harrier 1068481.791
    Warriors Wish 1108488
    Hecla 1170381.818
    Pakele 1181302.362
    Blue Moon 1292552.432
    Dream Chaser 1314280
    Solar Wind 1366079.633
    Bandicoot 1412411.429
    Taz!! 1693372.174
    Southernaire 1854957.647
    Culebra 1887880
    Second Verse 3822572.308

    Avg Corrected T(sec)
    Saraband 1151923.727
    Idefix 1159754.595
    Warriors Wish 1164836.991
    Harrier 1219796.345
    Hecla 1243060.118
    Pakele 1297731.194
    Solar Wind 1368843.404
    Dream Chaser 1446432.906
    Culebra 1604890.178
    Taz!! 1640284.35
    Blue Moon 1779792.131
    Second Verse 2129303.301
    Southernaire 2173361.217
    Bandicoot 3247840

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    224

    Default

    Bandicoot seems to be going well at this point. If Al stays along the rhumbline it looks like he could catch up some more. Should he stay the course or head a little south in about a day or so? Does he need a reach like an assy boat?

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    255

    Default Bandicoot

    I don't think he will be last. But looking through my predictions I don't think he'll be able to break to top half of the fleet.

    Now, the real question re. Bandicoot. Was he forced to come back under threat from the CG to launch a SAR because he lost his SSB and sat phone due to water on the first couple of days and couldn't check in?

    I know the race imposes a time penalty for not checking in, and that alone might have taken him out of contention and forced him back. But going back automatically takes him out of contention as well. So at the end of the day it doesn't make much sense to turn around. If it was because of the CG, I think that is BS. I thought that was what the EPIRBs are for.

    Its just a bummer as it looks like Bandicoot would have been in the running for top honors.

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