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Thread: New Boat 4 Sled

  1. #2581
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    6/17/18

    6 days to the start of the SHTP. Good news is the fleet is fortunate to not have started last week during strong coastal northwesterlies that saw 2 of 5 Great Pacific Race rowing entries abandoned in their race from Monterey to Honolulu. 40% of your race fleet is a pretty substantial drop out rate. And yes, the abandoned boats are out there drifting, but well south of the SHTP track.

    Further good news is the SHTP is fortunate not to have started this weekend, when a 1024 mb High is blocking the SHTP track and would cause a southerly detour.

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    Even more good news is at this time there are no tropical systems forecast to form in the near future (48 hours) in the EPAC, off Mexico.

    So, knowing that even the best weather forecasts for the EPAC are only accurate out 4-5 days, what might an optimum SHTP route look like if an imaginary J-105 were starting next Saturday, June 23, at noon? This chart is in the "best guess" department based on today's forecast for 144 hours in the future, with accuracy not guaranteed and "use at your own risk" assumed.

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    Last edited by sleddog; 06-17-2018 at 01:08 PM.

  2. #2582
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    Live in Phoenix, boat in San Diego
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    Quote Originally Posted by sleddog View Post
    6/17/18

    6 days to the start of the SHTP. . . .
    Good stuff, Skip. Feel free to keep this up through Friday! Thanks.
    Lee
    s/v Morning Star
    Valiant 32

  3. #2583
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    Race2Alaska aficionados are being treated to some superlative singlehanded performances.

    Leading all day yesterday in smooth conditions was the pedal power only TAKE ME TO THE VOLCANO, Matt Johnson spinning merrily along right up the track at 3.5 knots.

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    Also, in an amazing performance, is Josh Collins on Team TORRENT, an 18 foot Standup Paddleboard. Josh briefly took over the lead last night when TAKE ME TO THE VOLCANO stopped for a break. https://r2ak.com/2017-teams-stage-one/team-torrent/

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    This morning, out in front with a 6 mile lead over second place SAIL LIKE A GIRL, is Russell Brown on the G-32 catamaran Team PT WATERCRAFT. Russ's virtuoso performance is particularly fun to watch. This is a sailor with his act together, a well prepared and shaken down boat, an impressive new retractable and belt driven pedal drive that gives an honest 3 knots, the fastest bottom in the fleet, and a knowledge of both weather and what lies ahead. Russell even has two 15 mile shortcuts in his pocket that few know about, or would confidently risk.

    Russell anchored for a rest last night in James Bay on the N. end of Prevost Island when the tidal current turned foul between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m. Even so, he is now currently stretching his boat-for-boat lead over the rest of the fleet.
    http://tracker.r2ak.com/

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    Last edited by sleddog; 06-18-2018 at 10:16 AM.

  4. #2584
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    Stan Honey is a professional navigator/weatherman, SHTP winner, and genius at routing race boats across oceans. His Pacific Cup Weather Briefing is especially relevant to singlehanders racing to Hawaii and can be mined for nuggets both before and during your crossing. It can be found here https://pacificcup.org/sites/default...%20Tactics.pdf

    A caveat regarding this information. Stan is writing for fully crewed race boats, with full time navigators, professional foredeck crew, and plenty of power generation for downloading info onto computers running full time. This is not the case for singlehanders. The vocabulary of Stan's thesis is also not readily understandable for the average sailor.

    But don't give up. Just because you won't likely be jibing "50 times" as Stan alludes to doesn't mean his suggestions are not relevant. Stan's first suggestion is going to be especially important this Saturday:

    "Don't screw up the start, and get away for shore and out to the synoptic (gradient) wind before the evening glass off."

    As often happens, the leading boats passing the Golden Gate accordion their leads over those left behind. This is because the breeze will lift (veer) and increase as you get more offshore. ("Rich get richer.")

    Being slow out to the synoptic (gradient) wind just west of the Farallones will be fraught with danger this Saturday evening as a Southerly Surge builds northward along the coast, becalming those left behind as the wind turns southerly.

    Its busy for everyone with only 5 days to go before the SHTP start. But not too early or late to begin thinking about the weather you will encounter the first 4-5 days. And no, I must say I am sorry, but I will not be offering suggested routing at Friday's Weather Briefing, just comments on the current and forecast weather likely encountered enroute. Your routing will be up to you, as you best understand the capabilities of yourself and your boat.
    Last edited by sleddog; 06-18-2018 at 05:56 PM.

  5. #2585
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    Quote Originally Posted by AZ Sailor View Post
    Good stuff, Skip. Feel free to keep this up through Friday! Thanks.
    That's my sentiment exactly, and probably for the rest of us, too. Thanks!! I'm sooo excited to get going

  6. #2586
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    5 days to the start of the SHTP. Further good news. Once away from the coast and into the synoptic (gradient) breeze of "Windy Lane" past the Farallones, it looks like a fast race weather wise with a well developed EPAC High of 1030 mb anchored north of track. A hypothetical singlehanded J-105 could expect to be sipping maitais at Hanalei in 12.5 days, the night of July 5th, given today's information.

    No tropical formation in the EPAC forecast for the next 5 days, i.e. no tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in sight.

    Here's the 96 hour surface map:

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    And here is hypothetical routing for a singlehanded J-105 projected to start noon on Saturday, June 23. Take this with a grain of salt. I would probably be dipping a bit further south in the reaching breeze of days 1-3, adding distance in return for more speed and comfort.

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    Last edited by sleddog; 06-18-2018 at 06:39 PM.

  7. #2587
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    I love good news Kynntana loves Windy Lanes!!

  8. #2588
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    The box on the 96 hour surface chart that blots out the Gate says DVLPG GALE. And according to ECMWF said gale will be fully developed by Saturday evening, with 30 kts of wind and 13 ft seas on an 8 second period. Assuming ECMWF is talking about the "significant wave height" that NOAA uses (average height of highest 1/3 of waves), this portends a one-in-one hundred wave nearly 22 ft high about every 13 minutes.

    I'm very glad to have seen close to that on the last push up the coast at the end of May. We were motor sailing with a double reef in the main, wind and waves about 20 degrees off the port bow. It was not hard to envision the ride if we had hung a left and pointed towards Hawaii -- and it certainly seemed that Morning Star was up to the challenge.
    Lee
    s/v Morning Star
    Valiant 32

  9. #2589
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    Good times!

  10. #2590
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    It looks as if you guys are going to have a fast race. Those with windvanes will definitely be encouraged to use them. I say the first 5-7 days will be a challenge and after that you're all going to be flying by the seat of your pants in warm trades blowing 20-25 all the way to Hanalei. You can all do it! Have fun, be safe and encourage one another. I will definitely be watching.

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