cat whisperer
To close to call: At 9 pm this Wed. evening, KATO leads DOMINO by 123 miles, having gained 8 miles during the last 164 miles. KATO has 279 miles to go, and at the current rate, could gain another 14 miles before her finish. That would have KATO finishing 137 miles ahead of DOMINO, and DOMINO needing to average 6.5 knots to win.
My guess is KATO will reach HANALEI just after sunrise on Friday, HST.
One squall will make or break this race for the mai tais.
Last edited by sleddog; 07-13-2016 at 08:57 PM.
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
Bob's prognostications (as of Wed. night):
KATO needs to finish ahead of DOMINO by 21 hrs. 47 min. to beat him. At a half-knot speed difference KATO will eek it out by less than 15 minutes.
VENTUS needs to finish ahead of KATO by 4 hrs. 7 min. to beat him. At a quarter-knot speed difference VENTUS will come up short by an hour.
VENTUS needs to finish ahead of DOMINO by 25 hrs. 55 min. to beat him. At a 3/4 knot speed difference VENTUS will come up short by 7 hours.
So it will be KATO, DOMINO, VENTUS. But NINA is averaging a full knot faster than KATO and could sneak in between DOMINO and VENTUS for third.
For the Westsail fans, SARABAND is about 15 hours out of the hunt for first overall. The first 2-3 days killed those guys.
Re PSYCHE, I'm told Buzz Ballenger hates painted masts - he much prefers anodized. I can see why.
.
Last edited by BobJ; 07-13-2016 at 11:08 PM.
cat whisperer
RAGTIME: thank you for correcting my error in the corrected time difference between KATO and DOMINO. 21 hours, 47 minutes it is.... my bad.Originally Posted by BobJ
"For the Westsail fans, SARABAND is about 15 hours out of the hunt for first overall. The first 2-3 days killed those guys."
I think starting the slowest boats first, not last, would give them an extra boost out to the windline near the Farallones, The windline moved west and the slow boats couldn't catch it, but the fast ones did. This is a common situation.
Last edited by sleddog; 07-14-2016 at 04:15 AM.
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
KATO's slowdown overnight has changed my prognostications. I hope it's temporary. Olson 30's have this thing they do at about this point in a Hawaii race. Not much risk to the skipper but it sure screws up your race. I hope that didn't happen.
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
Command central here, Bob. Do we need to prepare w a defibrillater? Kahuna suggests you are referring to the wind shift, which is not unique to Olsons. Please explain to the audience.
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
He's back up to speed so forget I said anything. I don't want to jinx it.
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
This is quite a horse race. It's back to Commodore Dave after the last set of pings.
cat whisperer
As a dear Hanalei friend (a non-sailor) said last night, "Are the boat people arriving?"
Indeed they are. Hanalei is filling with expectant family and friends of the Bugliters, not the least of whom are the hard-working SSS Race Committee and it's welcoming committee.
Last evening at sunset, a large squall hula danced over Hanalei Bay, dumping enough rain to temporarily flood streets. As the dark squall with its vertical fingers moved on down the Napali, a double rainbow, and a dozen new waterfalls appeared over the ridges and cliffs. Nearshore, the tradewinds went light in the wake of the squall. Offshore in the distance, a large naval vessel was silhouetted, steaming east at a good clip, part of the RIMPAC exercises.
This morning at 0130 Hawaiian time, KATO is only 48 miles from the SHTP finish line off Pu'u Poa Point. A mid-morning finish can be expected for Jiri. Only 14 miles astern of the newly restored KATO, Chris on VENTUS has made miles overnight. Chris should sail his J-88 into Hanalei about 2 hours after KATO.
Robert's Olson-29 NINA is 93 miles out, charging hard on port jibe as he drops down from the North.
And 182 miles out, 134 miles behind KATO, comes David on DOMINO on his vintage Wilderness-30. Despite bleeding miles overnight, DOMINO remains in contention for the overall win. But David will now have to average over 6 knots to the finish for the win, an increasing challenge in the currently prevailing light to moderate tradewinds of 10-15 knots and the frequent squalls of the remnants of ex-tropical depression Blas now crossing the area.
The Mai-Tai's are being chilled. Here's a view from atop the cliffs near Pu'u Poa Point yesterday afternoon, overlooking the finish line, before the sunset squall darkened the sky and soaked the island landscape.
("Pu'u" means mountain, and "Poa" is a shortening of "Pa'ao," meaning "Staff of the Fire Godess, Pele." What a perfect name for the finish line of the Singlehanded Transpac!)
Last edited by sleddog; 07-15-2016 at 03:39 PM.
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
Did I hear that The General and The General's Daughter are sailing over? If so, how are they doing?
cat whisperer
Jiri's in!
This morning while swimming off Hideaways at Pu'u Poa Pt., I looked up to see a sail 2 miles to windward (NE). "Wow, here comes Jiri!"
The Tracker had been offline, and distance off had only been an estimate by DR . The RC down in Hanalei Viullage has reported being up much of the night, partly while climbing a muddy slope to establish a higher vantage for their Yagi Antenna. At 20 miles, the RC could hear KATO. KATO could not hear the RC.
Taken from water level, without a compass to verify, my unofficial estimate of KATO's finish is 0810 HST. Jiri crossed on port tack, beam reaching under white sails, 1/2 mile offshore, in 14-16 knots of wind, making 7-8 knots.
CONGRATULATIONS and Aloha!!!!!!
VENTUS should be finishing momentarily.
DOMINO was ~ 140 miles astern at KATO's finish. Dave has to average 6.4 knots to win. Doable.
Last edited by sleddog; 07-15-2016 at 03:40 PM.
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