4 days to the start of the SHTP. It looks like Aeolus, who has yet to appear for the Race2Alaska fleet, will find the SHTP straight away, and give them a blistering ride toward the island of mai tais and coconuts.
Not much change since yesterday. Here's the 96 hour forecast, which means this is the weather chart for Saturday, the day of the SHTP start.
The only question mark I see at this time is the location of the "TROF" over the Central Calif. Coast. The closer this trough to the coast, the more likely there might be a "Southerly Surge" moving up the coast from S.Cal, potentially bringing southerly winds immediately adjacent to shore. We will not know until later whether this Southerly Surge will appear off SF.
50-60 miles offshore it's bolt your socks on. MORNING STAR is gonna like this: 25 knots of wind on the beam. Make sure your solar panels are tied with a safety line to the boat. I once had mine hydroplaning astern by its cord. Yiii Doggies.
It continues to look like a 12 day passage for my imaginary singlehanded J-105, a strong EPAC High solid and remaining north of the track.
Here's a happy thought for DOLFIN, and everyone: A slim, almost non-exisistant chance of any tropicals influencing the race track. No cross swells from TS and hurricanes south of the fleet. These cross swells typically plague a trans-Pac 50% of the races.
And here's a science note for Carlianne on KYNNTANA. A 1979 NOAA Pilot chart shows the EPAC currents running .3 to .5 knots in your favor. That's just the drift current. Wind driven surface current can double that. For the first 4 days, with current on the beam or just aft, an allowance might be made for up to 12-15 miles of southerly set. That's a couple of degrees on the compass.
I'm sorry to see the Moore 24 HOLOKIKI no longer listed as an entry. Presumably RR was unable to complete a qualifier in time?