New Boat 4 Sled

[sleddog]

4 days to the start of the SHTP. It looks like Aeolus, who has yet to appear for the Race2Alaska fleet, will find the SHTP straight away, and give them a blistering ride toward the island of mai tais and coconuts.



Not much change since yesterday. Here's the 96 hour forecast, which means this is the weather chart for Saturday, the day of the SHTP start.



The only question mark I see at this time is the location of the "TROF" over the Central Calif. Coast. The closer this trough to the coast, the more likely there might be a "Southerly Surge" moving up the coast from S.Cal, potentially bringing southerly winds immediately adjacent to shore. We will not know until later whether this Southerly Surge will appear off SF.

50-60 miles offshore it's bolt your socks on. MORNING STAR is gonna like this: 25 knots of wind on the beam. Make sure your solar panels are tied with a safety line to the boat. I once had mine hydroplaning astern by its cord. Yiii Doggies.

It continues to look like a 12 day passage for my imaginary singlehanded J-105, a strong EPAC High solid and remaining north of the track.



Here's a happy thought for DOLFIN, and everyone: A slim, almost non-exisistant chance of any tropicals influencing the race track. No cross swells from TS and hurricanes south of the fleet. These cross swells typically plague a trans-Pac 50% of the races.

And here's a science note for Carlianne on KYNNTANA. A 1979 NOAA Pilot chart shows the EPAC currents running .3 to .5 knots in your favor. That's just the drift current. Wind driven surface current can double that. For the first 4 days, with current on the beam or just aft, an allowance might be made for up to 12-15 miles of southerly set. That's a couple of degrees on the compass.



I'm sorry to see the Moore 24 HOLOKIKI no longer listed as an entry. Presumably RR was unable to complete a qualifier in time?

[Tchoupitoulas]

My first take?!

• Huge cabin with comfortable cruising accommodations

Obviously… A huge cabin on a 15 foot boat is questionable.

I think this boat can be sailed very fast in a wide variety of conditions.

It looks to me that keeping it healed to 15+ degrees in light air will be required to minimize wetted surface.

The advertised weight is similar to a 505, and it has more sail area, so it should have speed potential.

HOWEVER, when rowing or pedaling the boat will be flat in the water, dragging it's tail, so a good skipper will learn to optimize light air sailing, mabie even rig the pedal power to function at a 15+ degree angle of heal.

Interesting take on a 15 footer compared to the River of Grass that I am building. It looks like it would haul ass, but in something like the R2AK would a singlehander benefit from an easier de-powered, simpler rig and 70 pounds of lead in the centerboard in the long haul?

RoG weighs 475 lbs and only carries 150 sq' upwind and down (although I plan a spinny option) compared to 350 lbs and 200 sq' up and 420 sq' down!
RoG has port and starboard water ballast at 80 lbs each, not sure what the Skate uses.

Do I see trap gear on the Skate? Bedard designed the RoG mizzen with a re-enforcement in the Mizzen mast for trapeze. Wow!

I would love to hear Howard's and Sled's and other's takes on these two designs.

[dolfinbill]

Thanks for the update Skip, and for reducing (but not eliminating) the influence of tropicals on our path. Now if you can just keep the wind in the range of oh maybe 18-25kts most of the way this could be a pretty fun race.

Bill

[Daydreamer]

That 35 knot barb looks like some kinda fun!

Windy shows a southerly surge building along the coast after midnight Saturday/Sunday am.

Lets see what develops .

[Philpott]

RoG weighs 475 lbs and only carries 150 sq' upwind and down (although I plan a spinny option) compared to 350 lbs and 200 sq' up and 420 sq' down!

.

I had a real nice conversation with Jo, the skipper of Kairos in the R2AK. He had very interesting and complimentary things to say about the RoG. Once I get some time I'll transcribe what he said and post it here. In the meantime, here's his little vessel at 4:15 am just before he tucked into the water.

[sleddog]

3 days to start of 2018 SHTP.
Not much change in race forecast. It would be difficult to dial a better forecast, assuming reaching for 3 days in 20-25 knots is your cup tea.

Here is the 96 hour surface forecast. Whoever drew the map managed to rudely blank out our area of offshore Central CA interest with a "1007" tag.



My imaginary singlehanded J-105 continues to speed along to Hanalei in about 12.5 days. It doesn't have to deviate much from Dead Down Wind (DDW) on the second half of the course. A broad 1032 EPAC High should be centered about 40.5 N x 138 W for the early and middle parts of the race.

Still no tropical activity to worry about.



Getting out of SF Bay Saturday afternoon shouldn't be too tough. Present forecast is for "Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming NW 7 to 12 kt in the afternoon. Sunny." 85 degrees forecast for Tiburon. Hot inland, with triple digits temps.

Is your baro calibrated? Oakland Airport on VHF weather radio is best local source. At this time, no need to try and reset the ship's barometer if its not reading nearly the same as Oakland. Rather, note the error, and add/subtract the difference for each logged reading.

Typically, the baro will slowly rise as one sails SW. When halfway, and having entered the trades, the barometric pressure will then slowly begin to fall for the rest of the trip

[dolfinbill]

Skip, thanks for the update again. What worries me (there's always something) is the cut-off low that appears Saturday night and moves west, maybe faster than we do. It would be sad for anyone to get trapped in it so near the start. The "fast" boats get to start first and have the best chance of avoiding it. Doesn't seem fair for us "slower" boats.

Bill

[sleddog]

Skip, thanks for the update again. What worries me (there's always something) is the cut-off low that appears Saturday night and moves west, maybe faster than we do. It would be sad for anyone to get trapped in it so near the start. The "fast" boats get to start first and have the best chance of avoiding it. Doesn't seem fair for us "slower" boats.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Not strictly a cutoff low, but a weather phenomena called a "southerly surge" or trough of low pressure ("trof") on the lee side (ocean side) of the coast range during inland high pressure and heat events that initiate offshore flow. This trof brings a tongue of southerly winds, fog bank, and shallow marine layer (stratus) up the coast from S.Cal. Not a good scenario for the start of a race to Hawaii. But common.



I have not seen the start order. You are correct. Being 15 minutes late, ~2 miles, could be the difference between being shot out of a cannon and left in the p-nut butter. We won't know until Saturday whether and when a southerly surge will appear.

I've been lobbying to start the slower boats first for a year. There is no reason they shouldn't be. C'est La Vie.

[sleddog]

Happy Solstice!

Who would have thought the Race2Alaska lead would be a battle between 3 mono-hulls, two of whom were built here in Santa Cruz.

An Olson 30, Team LAGOPUS is 3rd. the Melges 32 SAIL LIKE A GIRL is 2nd. And the wildcard is Team WILDCARD, a $2,000 Craigs List Santa Cruz 27 in the lead. Who said pigs can't fly? (Did I mention WILDCARD has a 240 pound crew member who likes to sit comfortably off the boat, slung in a trapeze?) Crazy stuff, like a 50 year old Columbia 50 just winning overall honors in the Bermuda Race.

http://tracker.r2ak.com/

[AZ Sailor]

I've been lobbying to start the slower boats first for a year. There is no reason they shouldn't be. C'est La Vie.

Perhaps the delay in issuance of the SI is due to reconsideration. No, the balloon doesn't ever land.